Last Thursday the OBR published a detailed forecast for the UK economy. It made for grim reading – the longest recession for a generation, falling disposable income and real wage growth around 35% less than its pre-crisis trend rate. Why Experts Predict 10% FALL in House PricesWatch this video on YouTube Amongst the dire economic …
Inflation in the UK rose to a 40 year record of 11.1% in Nov 2022 – why is inflation so high and will it come down soon? The last time inflation was so high was in 1981. But, inflation of the 1980s was different in that at least wages were keeping up with inflation. Now …
In September, the Pound plunged to its lowest level on record reaching a low of 1.03 during a day’s trading. The markets were spooked by the government’s unfunded tax cuts and likely £190 bn budget deficit. Investors viewed the Kwarteng/Truss budget as the shortest suicide note in history. Investors sold Sterling and UK bonds, creating …
Since Q1 2009, UK house prices have risen from £149,709 to £270,452 (Q2 2022) – an 81% increase. yet, during that period, median average wages have grown by just over 5%. The two main reasons are limited supply and ultra-low interest rates. Yet, this summer marked a turning point, with higher inflation causing Central …
Central Banks around the world are increasing interest rates because of concerns about inflation. However, the curious feature of this economic cycle is that Central Banks are raising rates, just as economies go into recession. Higher interest rates will, therefore, exacerbate the economic downturn and cause a deeper recession and higher unemployment. So why are …
Research shows that historical interest rates have been consistently falling, ever since the first interest rates could be measured in the medieval ages. Although there are cyclical fluctuations, there is a consistent long-term trend for real interest rates to fall at a steady rate. The interesting thing is that this phenomenon has been noticed in …
There is no doubt that as the economy emerged from Covid lockdowns in 2021, the world experienced a surge in inflation, not seen since the 1970s. There are many supply and demand factors, which have caused this unexpectedly high inflation. The first factor is that Covid lockdowns, especially in China and Asia, disrupted global supply …
The recent surge in UK government gilts is a warning that unfunded tax cuts in a time of high inflation can cause markets to sell off UK bonds and make it harder to finance future government borrowing. After 15 years of ultra-low interest rates and little concern about rising debt, it is a reminder that …