Russia’s Economic Problems Rise

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After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, western countries imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. Some claimed this would cripple Russian economy and led to a deep recession. But, the Russian economy seemed to shrug this off growing at 3.6% in 2023 making it own of the fastest growing economies in the G20. And …

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Does Rising UK Debt Make Austerity Inevitable?

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Recently the ONS produced a long-term forecast for spending and taxation. It makes for grim reading. Assuming policy doesn’t change, they forecast UK debt will rise to levels last seen in the Napoleonic Wars. This forecast also assumes there are no external shocks like Covid or the Ukraine war. At the same time, bond investors …

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Buying vs Renting a House

First time buyers have seen Mortgage payments as a share of income rise significantly in the past 2 years, increasing the cost of buying a house. However, the private rented market has been even more problematic.  In the past four years, rents have risen 20%, pushing tenants to spend a higher share of income on …

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US inflation in the post-war period

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This is a graph showing US inflation in the post-war period. In a nutshell, US inflation has been fairly low and stable in the post-war period. The exception being in the 1970s and early 1980s when inflation became embedded. After the Second World War there was lingering inflation for a few reasons. Firstly, the war …

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Future of UK House Prices – Boom or Bust?

If you had bought a house in 1996, in just eleven years it would have increased 258% £51,367 to £184,131 (258%). After the credit crunch, there was widespread pessimism and stagnant wages, but it didn’t stop house prices rising  83% from 149,709 to 273,000. In the past 50 years, UK house prices have risen almost …

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