Forecast for Interest Rates 2011

The UK economy faces a few paradoxes. Low Growth – High Inflation. Firstly, after a deep recession the economic recovery is weak. In theory, high unemployment and low growth should lead to low inflation. However, due to rising energy and food prices, we have inflation above target. This presents a conundrum for the Bank of …

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Question: Will the world economy end soon?

Readers Question: I’m not studying economics, just a normal person trying to make some decisions about my future and asking for advice on just how bad things are going to get over the next few years. I have a pessimistic friend who says currencies will collapse and I should be stocking up on tinned food, …

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Question: Should We Ban Cigarettes?

Readers Question: Using data and your economic knowledge assess the case for and against a government completely banning the sale and consumption of cigarettes. AQA (15) 1. Cigarettes are a demerit good. People underestimate the costs of smoking, e.g. lower life expectancy. It has been suggested that the true cost of a packet of cigarettes …

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Myths of Fiscal Policy

“Don’t Panic, Captain Mainwaring.” – Dad’s Army The famous catchphrase could perhaps be adapted to UK debt levels. The 1940s and 1950s, were an example of high debt, but, it didn’t cripple the UK economy, the 1950s proved to be a decade of full employment and was one of the longest periods of economic expansion …

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Debate on UK Debt

Two alternative views on UK’s debt problem. Debt Hawk Source: ONS The UK has seen a rapid deterioration in its budget deficit. At £146bn (12.5% of GDP) this is the biggest peace time budget deficit on record. (Apart from Greece) this leaves the UK with the largest annual budget deficit in the OECD. Given the …

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Spending cuts of coalition government and job losses

The coalition expects 490,000 public sector jobs to be lost by 2014-15 as a direct result of its drastic spending cuts, Danny Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury, has accidently disclosed. (link to Guardian) In addition the spending cuts, wage freezes and job losses will have a knock on effect to the rest of …

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Where is US Economy Heading 2010?

Readers Question: Where is the US economy headed? Is it inflation or depression? Recently, Goldman Sachs predicted a rough year ahead for the US Dollar. They forecast the dollar may fall against Pound Sterling to $1.85 in 12 months. Against the Euro, they forsee it to fall to $1.55 in a year’s time. Exchange rates …

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Impact of Chinese purchase of US dollars

Readers question: Nor do I understand how they can weaken their currency through government intervention, if they are not intervening.  Is it only US that is complaining about the value of the Yuan? The main thing is that Chinese Central Banks, with the support of the Chinese government are purchasing foreign assets, such as US …

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