The natural rate of interest is the interest rate consistent with maintaining economic growth at its trend rate and stable inflation. Another definition of the natural rate of interest is: “the real interest rate consistent with real GDP equalling its potential level (potential GDP) in the absence of transitory shocks to demand. (FR) In other …
Interest rates have been cut to a record low of 0.25% – essentially due to grim economic news from the short-run demand side shock of Brexit. Economic theory states that in normal circumstances, lower interest rates should boost aggregate demand (AD). To give a quick recap, lower interest rates should in theory: Reduce the incentive …
George Osborne has recently stated that leaving the EU could leave a black hole in public finances of £30bn and this would lead to sharp budget cuts – tax rises and spending cuts. This raises the interesting question of whether you can talk yourself into a recession. Do predictions of recession become self-fulfilling? How can …
There have been numerous economic predictions springing from a possible Brexit including recession, unemployment, falling Pound, falling stock markets, collapsing house prices, inflation and the end of civilisation as we know it (I’ll leave predictions of world wars e.t.c. for someone else to grapple with). But, what is the economic theory behind these economic predictions? …
Ireland has often held up to be a model country. Firstly, in the boom years, Ireland was a model of low taxes and deregulation. It’s rapid economic growth saw praise from both sides of the Atlantic. But, after the crash, Ireland has experienced a deep fall in GDP and the model of growth proved highly …
Currency wars are said to occur when countries seek to devalue their currency to gain a competitive advantage. However, if one country seeks to become more competitive through devaluation, it means other countries become less competitive. Therefore, they may respond by weakening their currency too. Thus, we may get a situation of competitive devaluation where …
A useful tool for students is the idea of an ‘economist toolkit’. This is essentially a few key ideas that can be used to help answer different questions. Let us consider a question. – Discuss the impact of an increase in interest rates? Macro-Economic Toolkit This question is quite open-ended. First of all, consider the …
Readers Question: If there is a significant slowdown in the rate of Chinese economic growth – how will it affect the UK and other global economies? Summary The Chinese economy has been growing very rapidly, and is now one of the biggest economies in the world. The size of the Chinese economy means it has …