Readers Question: What effect do interest rates (either a rise, fall or steadying) have on both monetary and real wages? I think I’ve got my head around it, but I’m looking for a nicely explain summary (understanding that there are probably a million of contributing factors that can lead to a million outcomes!) You are …
Definition of Participation Rate. The participation rate is the number of people working or actively seeking work as a % of the working population (16-65). The participation rate is similar to the concept of being ‘economically active’. If a person drops out of the labour market, they are considered economically inactive and no longer participating. …
In a recession, you would usually expect a fall in the inflation rate due to lower demand and lower economic activity. The inflation rate fell in major recessions like 1929-32, 1981, 1991 and 2020.. However, it is not guaranteed inflation will fall in recession. For example, we could have a period of stagflation – rising …
Originally published in March 2015. Current inflation rate (Feb 2020) is 1.3%. I was 0.7% out. But there was no skill in predicting inflation of 2%. If Ii had to predict inflation for 2025, I would predict the same = 2%. Reader’s Question: What will be the inflation rate in 2020? Firstly, I can’t resist …
Readers Question: How does the MPC predict future inflation? Inflation is caused by a mixture of demand-pull and cost-push factors. Therefore, the MPC will look at many statistics which give an indication of whether the economy is reaching full employment and causing inflationary pressures. This will include rate of economic growth, unemployment and the amount …
Readers Question: Can inflation cause a recession? Inflation is not the main cause of recessions. Usually, recessions are caused by factors such as high-interest rates, fall in confidence, fall in bank lending and decline in investment. However, it is possible that cost-push inflation can contribute to a recession, especially if inflation is above nominal wage …
The interest rate cycle is closely related to the economic or trade cycle. In theory, movements in interest rates should mirror the economic cycle. If the economy is growing strongly and inflationary pressures increasing – Central Banks will increase interest rates to slow down the economy and prevent inflation. If the economy enters into recession …
When reading economic articles in the past few years, you may frequently come across the reference to the ‘zero lower bound’ or ZLB. What is the Zero Lower Bound rate? In short – when interest rates can’t fall any further below 0% Examples of ZLB UK interest rates were cut to 0.5% in March 2009 …