It’s not a good time to be a member of the Monetary Policy Committee. Inflation far exceeding forecasts and the Bank was forced into something of a u-turn belatedly increasing interest rates in a shock-and-awe tactic designed to regain credibility. Some critics argue the recent interest rate rises are like using a sledgehammer to crack …
Summary of Phillips Curve The Phillips curve suggests there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. This suggests policymakers have a choice between prioritising inflation or unemployment. During the 1950s and 1960s, Phillips curve analysis suggested there was a trade-off, and policymakers could use demand management (fiscal and monetary policy) to try and influence …
Last week I accompanied a friend with a broken arm to a local hospital. We arrived 8 pm, but we didn’t get seen until 5 am. This kind of experience is typical of the recent surge in waiting lists that we have seen in the NHS. We can see it in waiting lists for A&E, …
The past couple of years have seen a surge in house prices around the world. This has pushed house price-to-income ratios to record levels – in many cases, outstripping the last boom of 2007. This is a major warning signal prices are unsustainable and in recent months, prices have started to fall rapidly, with at …
Core Inflation. This is a measure of inflation which excludes certain volatile and seasonal prices. It will be based on the Consumer price index but exclude prices such as Petrol (subject to oil price variations) Food (subject to seasonal variations) Core inflation will also exclude the impact of government excise duties. Core inflation is seen …
Central Banks around the world are increasing interest rates because of concerns about inflation. However, the curious feature of this economic cycle is that Central Banks are raising rates, just as economies go into recession. Higher interest rates will, therefore, exacerbate the economic downturn and cause a deeper recession and higher unemployment. So why are …
Research shows that historical interest rates have been consistently falling, ever since the first interest rates could be measured in the medieval ages. Although there are cyclical fluctuations, there is a consistent long-term trend for real interest rates to fall at a steady rate. The interesting thing is that this phenomenon has been noticed in …
There is no doubt that as the economy emerged from Covid lockdowns in 2021, the world experienced a surge in inflation, not seen since the 1970s. There are many supply and demand factors, which have caused this unexpectedly high inflation. The first factor is that Covid lockdowns, especially in China and Asia, disrupted global supply …