The effective exchange rate measures the value of a currency against a basket of other currencies. This exchange rate index is usually trade-weighted to take into account the relative importance of other currencies. When looking at the effective Sterling exchange rate we compare the value of Sterling against our main trading partners – The Euro, …
The Sahm rule is a way of predicting a recession from changes in the unemployment rate. “(The) Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.” (Sahm Rule) …
Periods of high oil prices frequently lead to periods of recession shortly after. There are two main reasons for this. Higher oil prices reduce disposable income leading to lower spending. Higher oil prices push up inflation causing Central Banks to increase interest rates. Oil prices and recession With oil prices rising above $100 because of …
Definition of Household savings ratio: The percentage of disposable income that is saved. (1) Total savings = Disposable income – Household consumption UK Saving Ratio Latest UK household savings ratio: 2021 = 10% But, by 2021 Q4 the saving ratio had fallen to 6.2% By contrast, the average savings ratio in the past 54 years …
Summary Natural gas is a key raw material for heating and electricity generation, therefore higher prices will significantly increase the cost of living, increase inflation and could slow down economic growth. In the long term, higher gas prices will encourage consumers to find alternatives and firms to increase supply (e.g. fracking for natural gas), but …
Recessions (a fall in real GDP) are primarily caused by a fall in aggregate demand (AD). A demand-side shock could occur due to several factors, such as A financial crisis. If banks have a shortage of liquidity, they reduce lending and this reduces investment. A rise in interest rates – increases the cost of borrowing …
Economic sanctions are policies designed to hurt the economy of a target country. Sanctions can involve trade embargoes, seizure of assets, travel bans and limits on capital flows. The aim of sanctions is usually to provide a political signal of disapproval which stop short of military action. They can be imposed by one country unilaterally, …
Putting aside the very real human cost, war has also serious economic costs – damage to infrastructure, a decline in the working population, inflation, shortages, uncertainty, a rise in debt and disruption to normal economic activity. From some perspectives, war can appear to be beneficial in terms of creating demand, employment, innovation and profits for …