Why is cost of living in UK so expensive?

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Readers Question: Why is the cost of living in the UK so expensive? The cost of living depends on: The price of basic necessities – food, fuel, heating, transport, housing/rent, entertainment. The effective cost of living also depends on real wages. It is expensive to live in Nordic countries, but real wages tend to be …

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List of Gross External Debt by Country

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External debt is the total public (government) and private debt owed to non-residents repayable in internationally accepted currencies, goods, or services. This is gross (total) external debt. It does not measure net debt.

External debt is different to measures of public (government) debt. See: List of national debt by country.

Some countries with very high levels of external debt, also have very high levels of external credit. For example, Ireland, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Singapore have high levels of assets – i.e. they hold the external debt of other countries. In fact, they are net international creditors because there assets are greater than their debt levels.

Countries with large banking systems tend to have higher levels of external debt because they correspondingly hold more international assets. The problem comes when the assets they hold fall in value.

However, some countries can have high external debt because of past borrowing requirements and high levels of government debt. For example, Greece has one of the highest levels of external debt 298% of GDP. This is largely due to the debt crisis of 2010 onwards where Greek debt became overwhelming and they required foreign borrowing.

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External debt can be problematic for developing countries if interest payments on their external debt levels impact on a countries ability to invest and spend on current public services.

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Biflation – definition and explanation

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Biflation is a term used to describe a period where some prices are rising and some prices are falling. It can appear we have both inflation and deflation at the same time. CPI = Headline inflation rate CPI less food and energy  = underlying or core inflation. In the above example, the headline rate is …

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What happens to value of currency during recession?

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Readers Question: What will happen to the value of a currency during times of deep recession and high inflation?

There is no hard and fast rule about what will happen to the value of a currency during a deep recession – though, a currency is likely to fall because country becomes a less attractive place to invest. For example, when the great recession started in 2008, the UK experienced a significant depreciation.


The Pound Sterling fell over 25% from 2007 (before the start of the great recession) to July 2009

But the Euro and Dollar were less affected by the great recession.

U.S._Dollar_Index The US dollar index (which shows the value of the US dollar against a trade-weighted basket of other currencies, e.g. Euro and Yen) has fluctuated but overall has remained at similar value to the start of the recession.

Note in early 1980, the US went into recession, but during this period the value of the Dollar rose.

It was a similar experience in the UK, in the 1980s, In 1980,  there was a rapid appreciation in Sterling (which was one factor contributing to the recession of 1980/81.)

2022 Recession

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The Pound Sterling has been sliding during 2021/22 and towards the end of 2022, it looks like UK economy is heading into recession.


Economic theory behind the value of a currency in recession

Suppose one country, e.g. the UK, enters a deeper recession than all its other competitors. How might we expect the currency to behave?

Recession and interest rates. If the UK enters a recession, then we would expect UK interest rates to fall compared to other countries. This would make the UK less attractive for investors to save money. Hot money flows are likely to leave the UK and move to countries with higher interest rates. If people move money out of the UK, they will sell Pounds and buy other currencies, causing a fall in the value of Sterling. Therefore, in theory, we might expect a recession to cause a fall in the value of the currency.

Evaluation

1. In a recession, inflation is likely to fall. Lower inflation will help the country become more competitive, and this may increase demand for the currency causing it to rise.

2. Many factors affect the value of a currency. For example, if the UK had a large current account deficit, then we might expect this trade deficit to put downward pressure on the currency. The fall in the value of Sterling in 2008 was partly related to the UK’s trade deficit and lack of competitiveness. However, if a country like Germany entered a recession, they may be less downward pressure on their currency (the Euro) because Germany has a large current account surplus.

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Impact of Wage Inflation

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Summary: Wage inflation is an increase in nominal wages, meaning workers receive higher pay. Wage inflation tends to cause price inflation and higher growth. The impact of wage inflation depends on whether it is a real increase (higher than inflation) or just nominal increase (same wage increase as inflation). The effect also depends on labour …

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Sectors of the economy

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The main sectors of the economy are: Primary sector – extraction of raw materials – mining, fishing and agriculture. Secondary / manufacturing sector – concerned with producing finished goods, e.g. Construction sector, manufacturing and utilities, e.g. electricity. Service / ‘tertiary’ sector –  concerned with offering intangible goods and services to consumers. This includes retail, tourism, …

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Reasons for falling wages

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Since the financial crisis, we have seen an unprecedented stagnation/decline in real wages. This decline has been most noticeable for low-income workers, with growing levels of inequality. The decline/stagnation in real wages is a global phenomenon – though some countries have been more affected than others. Reasons suggested for falling/stagnant wages since 2008 include: Recession …

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Entry of new firms into a market – Game theory

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This decision tree is a simple example of game theory for firms deciding whether to enter the market and how existing firms should respond. If firm A (new firm) does not enter the market it makes £0 profit and the incumbent firm, firm B makes £3 profit. However, if Firm A does enter the market, …

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