The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual output (Y) and potential output (Yf).
Output gap = Y- Yf
A Negative Output Gap occurs when actual output is less than potential output gap. In a recession, a fall in Real GDP causes a negative output gap. However, it can become difficult to know what potential output should actually be. Therefore, there can be different opinions about how the size of the output gap.
The effective exchange rate measures the value of a currency against a basket of other currencies. This exchange rate index is usually trade-weighted to take into account the relative importance of other currencies. When looking at the effective Sterling exchange rate we compare the value of Sterling against our main trading partners – The Euro, …
The Sahm rule is a way of predicting a recession from changes in the unemployment rate. “(The) Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.” (Sahm Rule) …
Readers Question: what are the pros and cons of price control? Summary Price controls can take the form of maximum and minimum prices. Price controls can also be used to limit price increases as a way to try and reduce the rate of inflation. Maximum prices can reduce the price of food to make it …
Periods of high oil prices frequently lead to periods of recession shortly after. There are two main reasons for this. Higher oil prices reduce disposable income leading to lower spending. Higher oil prices push up inflation causing Central Banks to increase interest rates. Oil prices and recession With oil prices rising above $100 because of …
A graph showing net lending (+) and net borrowing (-) by sector in the UK economy. This shows how public borrowing is mirrored by a rise in private sector (household+corporate) saving. The two extremes are the financial crisis of 2009 and Covid lockdowns of 2021. In both cases, these events led to a rise in …
War has always had substantial economic costs, but war is becoming increasingly costly for both belligerents and bystanders. This is due to both the monetary costs of fighting and the economic fallout of sanctions. During the cold war, there was a theory that nuclear war would ensure a mutual self-destruction – and this assured mutual …
Summary – Periods of high inflation usually lead to lower returns on the stock market because higher inflation is likely to lead to higher interest rates, lower economic growth and lower dividends. Impact of high inflation on share prices If the inflation rate increases, this will make investors wary for a few reasons. Firstly, if …