Quantitative easing and impact on savers

Quantitative easing aims to stimulate the economy and reduce gilt yields. A consequence of this is that lower bond yields lead to lower income for savers. This particularly affects pensioners who rely on income from savings to provide for their retirement.

Since QE was implemented in March 2009, the income paid by pension annuities has fallen by a quarter (FT).  The decision to pursue quantitative easing has also been criticised for effectively redistributing income from savers to borrowers.

However, though quantitative easing may have impact of reducing bond yields it is worth bearing in mind, the following.

  • Falling bond yields are not just due to quantitative easing. They reflect investors desire for security and reflect their concerns over future economic growth. Even without quantitative easing, you would expect falling bond yields from the state of the economy. (see: why are bond yields falling)
  • Falling bond yields have helped to boost prospects of economic growth, which ultimately is essential for the the long term performance of pension funds. If the economy gets stuck in a deflationary trap and persistently low growth, then there will be a sustained fall in the value of pension funds – more serious than the temporary drop in bond yields. The effects of Quantitative easing are probably fairly limited, but it is still one of the few ways to boost economic activity.
  • Falling bond yields have helped to make shares more attractive. Given falling bond yields, there has been some shift into shares. Also, share prices have been helped by the  prospect of stronger economic growth. The All Share index is 50% higher than in March 2009. Quantitative easing has played a role in boosting the prospects of shares. Therefore, although pension funds have seen a fall in income, the rise in share prices has helped to offset this decline in income.

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Questions on Money Supply and Inflation

Readers Question: Does money printing/QE always lead to inflation and price increases? No. Increasing the money supply does not necessarily cause inflation. In particular, we have seen a large increase in the monetary base (narrow money) that hasn’t led to an increase in the general price level. If you look at link between money supply …

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Criticisms of Bank of England forecasting by D.Blanchflower

Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England, writes a critical piece on the Bank of England’s forecasting record in the Independent. “The second chart gives cause for concern because for the umpteenth time the MPC is forecasting rapid recovery, which is extremely unlikely to happen, and it seems that little has been …

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Question: How can countries with high debt have a strong currency?

Readers Question: How is it possible for countries with massive debt to have a strong currency, e.g Japan and the US?

Sometimes countries can have large debts that are sustainable. In the case of Japan and the US, the general consensus is that there is a very low risk of default.

us-national-debt-percent-gdp-since-1980

US debt is very large, but debt interest payments are manageable. The US has had much higher debt to GDP ratios in the past (US Debt history). Also, markets expect the US economy to grow in the future (already first signs of economic recovery in US). This will help reduce debt to GDP ratio in the future.

Therefore, buying US securities is still seen as a fairly safe investment. It is unlikely the US will face inflation or debt default, so investors are currently willing to hold dollar assets.

japan-debt

Japan has an even higher level of public sector debt (over 220% of GDP) But, Japanese bond yields are very low. This is helped by a large pool of domestic savings. There is a high willingness to buy debt. See: Japan debt

In recent months, there has been an increase in demand for Japanese bonds from foreign investors. Foreign investors have been buying short-term Japanese Treasury Bills. A significant reason for this is that investors prefer the idea of holding Japanese bonds to Eurozone debt.

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Indian Economy 2012

An Overview of the Indian economy in 2012 and its prospects for the future. (Depressed by events in Europe, a look at an economy with a very different economic outlook). Summary In the past few years, the Indian economy has been growing rapidly – (e.g.  8.5%2010-11). However, this growth has led to an increase in …

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Japan Savings Ratio 2012

Japan has traditionally had a high savings ratio, but, in past decade the savings ratio has fallen to be close to European / US levels. Graph showing Japan Savings Rates Japan’s economy chasing illusions Since 1998, though Japanese saving rates have declined. The graph is a bit hard to read, but, since 2004, Japanese saving …

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