Failures of the Bank of England

It’s not a good time to be a member of the Monetary Policy Committee. Inflation far exceeding forecasts and the Bank was forced into something of a u-turn belatedly increasing interest rates in a shock-and-awe tactic designed to regain credibility. Some critics argue the recent interest rate rises are like using a sledgehammer to crack …

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Is the UK heading for a Recession in 2024?

uk-eu-inflation

Is the UK Heading for a Pre-Election RECESSION?Watch this video on YouTube Last year, the Bank of England made a very gloomy prediction for the UK economy – a deep and prolonged recession. They were wrong, the UK avoided recession and grew more strongly than some expected, but the downside is that the Bank of …

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Bad News for UK Housing Market

House prices are falling in most parts of the country. With prices around £15,000 lower than last summer. After a prolonged boom, the house price inflation rate is turning negative with some of the fastest falls since the last crash. Adjusted for inflation, the real house price fall is 11% lower than last summer. FALLING …

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UK Government spending – real and as % of GDP

uk-public-spending-share-of-gdp-june-2022-crop

uk-government-spending-98-22

Source: ONS MF6U

UK government spending passed over £1 trillion in 2020 due to the extra spending measures of the Covid Pandemic.

Total spending compared to Nominal GDP

total-government-spending-psr-gov-uk

Source: HMT public spending statistics (May 2022)

The rise in spending 2020-21, also combined with a fall in GDP

UK Public spending as % of GDP

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-spending-statistics-release-may-2022/public-spending-statistics-may-2022

Source: OBR (April 2022)

In 2000-01, several years of government spending restraint combined with rising economic growth, saw government spending shrink to under 35% of GDP. Between 2001 and 2007-08, spending rose to over 40% of GDP due to sustained increases in spending on health, education and welfare spending.

In 2007/08 the financial crisis and subsequent recession led to higher spending as ratio of GDP – even though the new Conservative government pursued austerity and sought to cut government spending or limit spending in many areas.

Real term trends in public spending

spending-by-dept-psr-gov-uk

Health care has been the biggest source of growth since 2010. Social protection, which includes pensions has been flatter since 2010 because of low real income increases in welfare benefits.

Source HMT Public spending statistics (May 2022)   UK Pension spending

More details on pension spending.

Government borrowing

uk-net-borrowing-55-22-marks

This shows recent government borrowing. As expected in a recession, borrowing peaks.

Background to government spending

  • Between 2008-09 and 2009-10, the UK saw a large drop in real GDP of 6%, but due to automatic stabilisers government spending increased (e.g. higher unemployment benefits). This caused government spending as % of GDP to rise to 47%.
  • Government spending as % of GDP is forecast to fall closer to 40% of GDP by 2016-17 (if growth targets are met)

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Fixed or Variable Mortgage? Which is Better?

Like many, my fixed rate mortgage deal expires very soon and so I am left with firstly the shock of how much the mortgage will increase and secondly the difficult question of whether to get a fixed rate mortgage or a variable tracker mortgage. Fixed or Variable Mortgage – What Should I Get?Watch this video …

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