Disguised unemployment

Readers Question: what is the difference between disguised unemployment and involuntary unemployment Definition of disguised unemployment. This is when people do not have productive full-time employment but are not counted in the official unemployment statistics. This may include: People with sickness/disability benefits (but, would be able to do some jobs) People doing part-time work. (sometimes …

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The Euro and deflation

A look at the effects of how an over-valuation of the exchange rate can cause deflation. Readers Question: does an appreciation in the exchange rate cause deflation? An appreciation does tend to reduce inflationary pressures. This is because after after an appreciation in the exchange rate: Price of imports will fall, causing a fall in …

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UK unemployment threshold of 7%

Readers Question Why is the forward guidance threshold set at 7% unemployment and how does this affect the threshold for inflation? The MPC have a remit to target inflation of CPI = 2% +/-1. But, the MPC also consider wider issues of economic growth and unemployment. UK Real GDP is still lower than the level …

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How reliant is the UK economy on oil?

Readers Question: How reliant is the UK economy on oil?

There are two ways of considering this question – the consumption and production of oil.

  • Firstly, how much does the UK need to consume oil to maintain economic activity? Could we survive in a post-oil economy?
  • Secondly, how important is the UK oil industry and the production of oil?

Consumption of oil

UK_oil_production-consumption This shows that we are consuming a steady 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels of oil a day. Oil is an essential raw material for many key economic activities, such as:

  1. Transport – cars, lorries e.t.c. mostly rely on petrol / diesel. (In the US transport accounts for 66% of all oil used. I imagine it is a similar statistic in the UK.)
  2. Production of plastic
  3. Fertilizers
  4. Asphalt
  5. Polyurethanes
  6. Solvents
  7. Electrical generation

Reducing dependency on oil consumption

  1. There have been some attempts to reduce the dependency on oil. In transport, the government have encouraged the consumption of electric cars, with subsidies and encouraging electric car charging points.  But, between between 2010 and June 2013 only 5,034 electric cars have been registered. It is a small drop compared to the total number of cars sold.
  2. According to Calor, there are 160,000 LPG registered cars in the UK, and the number is on the rise.
  3. Energy efficiency. Cars have become more energy efficient with a high miles per gallon becoming a strong selling point. This has limited the growth in demand for petrol.
  4. Alternative forms of transport. Some see alternative forms of transport as a way to avoid reliance on oil based fuels. However, despite growth in cycling rates and increased use of trains, cars  / lorries still dominate the UK’s mode of transport.
4-modes-transport
The dominance of the car in the UK

However, the improvements in energy efficiency and attempts to introduce alternative fuel cars are only limiting the growth in demand for oil based fuel.

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Policies to reduce unemployment in Greece

Readers Question: What policy strategy is good to reduce unemployment in Greece? The Greek economy is experiencing grave problems, with record levels of unemployment. Unemployment in Greece is running at 27.5% – (end of 2013) This unemployment rate is even higher amongst young people. The unemployment is primarily caused by the prolonged recession which has …

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Ireland national debt

Irish national debt – the total amount of Irish government debt.

Irish national debt has increased to 117% of GDP in recent years because of a large financial bailout to Irish banks, deep recession which saw a 20% drop in nominal tax revenues, and continued weakness in GDP growth which has made it difficult to reduce debt to GDP, despite government spending cuts.

ireland-government-debt

Source: cso.ie

The Total Irish Government debt 2012 Q3 – €190,954 million – (117% of GDP)

Irish government debt millions

ireland-debt-million

 

See also: stats at ECB (Debt based on – Maastricht assets/liabilities – General government (ESA95) – European Commission – All sectors without general government (consolidation) (ESA95)

 Irish government spending

ireland-government-spending

The peaks in spending in 2010 were related to the Irish government bailout of banks. After the bailout, the government has pursued spending cuts.

Example of spending cuts from 2012 budget at Telegraph

Ireland 2012 budget

– €2.2bn of the €3.8bn of fiscal consolidation is on the spending side.

– Capital expenditure will be cut by €755m, while current spending cuts to contribute €1.4bn. (includes public sector pay, welfare payments, education and health care)

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EU Bond Yields and Debt

Stats on EU Bond Yields and Debt.

See also: Primary budget Deficits of EU

EU Bond yields 2010 – 2012

eu-bond-yields-7-countries

ECB Long term Interest rates

EU Bond Yields 2010 – 2014

eu-bond-yields

2010-2012 – Why did Bond yields on Eurozone debt rise, but yields on UK debt fall?

One significant cause is that the ECB won’t / can’t act as lender of last resort and buy government bonds. Therefore markets fear a liquidity shortage in Eurozone and so are reluctant to hold bonds.

Further reading:  EU debt crisis explained

Related

See also:

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National Debt – FAQ

Definition of National Debt and National debt in the UK – National debt is essentially the total amount the government has borrowed from the private sector Should we worry about UK’s current situation? – Essay on reasons to worry and reasons not to worry Understanding Government debt statistics – History of National Debt – National …

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