After several years of rapid growth, 2009, will prove a testing year for India.
Inflation Inflation continues to pose a threat. Inflation peaked at 12% in early August ’08. Inflation, is being caused by rapid growth (demand pull factors) but, also the cost push inflation factors (rising oil prices). Hopefully, the fall in oil prices and higher interest rates will reduce inflation without causing too much of a slowdown.
Economic Growth. After reaching growth of 9.8% in 2007/08, growth is expected to slow down to 7%. This might not be a bad thing as it will avoid inflationary pressures building further. However, some worry the global credit crunch could reduce growth much more.
Global Recession and Indian Economy. It appears that Europe, Japan and the US are entering into recession. Falling house prices, crisis in the financial system, and lower confidence could lead to a sharp downturn, with the worst still to come.
Many argue, that India’s growth is not so dependent on growth in the West. However, the Indian stockmarkets have been hit by the global crisis. India’s growing service sector and manufacturing sector would be adversely impacted by a global downturn. However, I still feel that India’s economic success is not dependent on growth in the West, and at worst India’s growth rate will be less than hoped for.
The Indian government still have a target of 10% growth for 2010/11, but, I think this could prove unrealistic.
Challenges for Indian Economy in 2009
- Getting inflation under control
- Spreading the benefits of growth more equitably.
- Completing investment projects which are essential for long term development of economy.
- Dealing with global financial uncertainty, which will make capital flows and exports more difficult.
Sensex in 2009
After falling in 2008, the Sensex could offer one of the best returns for global stockmarkets. India’s strong economic growth will buck the global trend for lower growth.
Indian Rupee 2009
The Indian Rupee has had a surprisingly weak year. The Rupee has fallen from 39 Rupee to 1$ in January 2008, to 44 Rupee in September. Real interest rates in India are still negative, but, if the Indian inflation rate is reduced, and the government resist the temptation to go all out for growth, the Rupee may rebound, at least against the dollar, which will face more difficulties in 2009
Indian Economy 2010
More on Indian Economy
- Indian economy set to grow despite downturn – Indian Reuters
- Indian economy – wikipedia
- Problems facing Indian economy
after nuclear deal govt expect only 39 rupee equall to 1 $ i think govt expect rupee value is morthan $
what are indicators to control the inflation due to international economy in the world who are responsiple ?
when will push up the economic condition by various policies of various countries in the world?
In 2009 Indian Economy will be in doldrums. Government is pressurizing to reduce the interest rate. Mortgage Finance(More Popularly- Housing finance) Government is arm twisting banks to reduce the interest rate but at the same time developers are not reducing the price. What happened in USA Sub-Prime crisis it will be repeated in India. Similarly in infrastructure. Projects are taking longer time to complete it. Unemployment is another issue.
indian economy is in downturn.but it is expected to bounce back in second half of 2009, with elections around the corner and effectiveness of stimulus package will show its results in second half. in short term indian economy will face tough times and umemployment and low economic growth are issues to look upon
india economy in 2009. Only GOD knows
dafinately Indian Economy will bounce back but for that we have to reconsider our financial policies & turn into action without failure
Indian economy has been over boiled for the past 4 years, following the global boom. The inflation is at its peak with the property prices still not cooling off compared to the expection of 40-50% lower to the current levels. All the banks are holding onto the cash reserves and there is subdued in the lending segment. Obviously, this will cool off the economy. The margin of almost all the companies has come down in last quarter 2008. The year 2009 is very challenging, we can see more cost cutting from the companies, halt in the new requirements and fall in the exports and productions which will be a set back. With the election in the mid off the year, global investors with be very cautious to invest in the Indian market. Ultimately will be caught in the wind of the recession.
I think recession is the right time for investment in traditional businesses i.e agriculture, food etc etc. This is also the right time for the government to implement and identify the instruments to control the economy, inflation and interest rates. By investing in the implemention of services & instruments for the control of economy, incorporating & modernising public health system, modernisation of policing,implementation & upgradation of key public sector projects i.e dams, roads, motorways, powerplants, railways, it is posible to boost the demand which can eventually kick start the economy. Indian economy is easily being affected by changes in the agriculture industry. This is a great instrument in controlling the economy. By boosting & modernising and implementing the logistics in this sector this country can acheive a lot.
indian economy will be doing good in this recession time.railway sector and public sector banks are performing well.in the coming year tourism will help us a lot ingetting foriegn currency.if ipl will be held in this session.it will also help.
DEEPAK THINKS THAT HE WILL DO GREAT FOR INDIAN ECONOMY
what government has shown in the recent five years was immense fluctuations in the capital and product and service market. each and every sectors of economy was hit hard. my question to the current government is what are the measures they have taken to avoid such fluctuations?
well thinking about 9%-8% growth is like day dreaming,
when we face grave situtation like deflation(where the real products which we cosume is expensive,this is not
deflation to any amm adami)
we have elections comming,where no party is capable of forming a government on its own.
the prime minester is simply not able take his decisions,
this will defenitly effect the growth prospects of our country.
Indian Economic service sector & manufacturing sector has gone fully down this year. 2009 is very bad to all the sector which not pickup the economic growth.
Share market are gone down, Mumbai attack, IPL canceld, election appears etc.
No word to say this year all are in trouble.
God pls save us